Metropolis Report-
In light of strong domestic demand and favorable trends in fuel and food prices, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) has maintained its growth prediction for Bangladesh’s gross domestic product at 6.5% for the current fiscal 2023–24.
This was revealed in the most recent ADB study, titled Asian Development Outlook July 2023, which was made public on Wednesday. The ADB’s prognosis for Bangladesh’s GDP is still higher than the World Bank’s estimate of 6.2% and is in line with the IMF’s prediction of 6.5%. The government’s ambitious goal of 7.5% growth isn’t met, though.
The ADB report cites the unexpected fall in imports and a less severe downturn in export growth as justification for its decision to increase Bangladesh’s GDP growth from the earlier estimate of 5.3% to 6% for the previous fiscal year. According to the report, the manufacturing industry was a key factor in the increase, and businesses benefited from helpful government measures.
In Bangladesh, imports dropped significantly more than anticipated, but export growth slowed less than anticipated. According to the research, manufacturing companies of all sizes took advantage of favorable government measures to boost expansion.
According to the ADB, subsidies, incentives, and other policies helped offset some of the crop losses brought on by floods, cyclones, and droughts. Additionally, increased warehouse and support activities as well as health and social services helped the nation’s service industry. Due to the report, public consumption and investment growth exceeded forecasts on the demand side.
In accordance with the analysis, given balancing trends, South Asia’s growth will reach 5.5% in 2023 and 6.1% in 2024.
South Asia is expected to meet [Asian Development Outlook] goals. Bangladesh’s growth prediction was revised upward in April 2023 as net exports performed better than anticipated, offsetting downward revisions for Nepal and Pakistan in 2023. “Growth projections elsewhere in South Asia are largely maintained,” the research claims.
The South Asian inflation projection for 2024, which was left at 8.1% for 2023, has been significantly revised up to 6.4%.
Asia and the Pacific are still recovering from the epidemic at a steady rate, according to ADB Chief Economist Albert Park. Growth is being driven by domestic demand and service activity, and many economies are also gaining from a robust tourism revival. However, exports and industrial production continue to be poor, and the forecast for demand and global growth in 2019 has deteriorated.
Exports and industrial activity in developing Asia are continuing to slow down as global demand weakens, according to the July Outlook 2023 report. Key technology exporters have had a significant year-over-year fall in their exports, and the rest of the region has also seen a decline due to reduced demand.
Consumption and investment, according to the ADB research, are anticipated to drive overall regional growth to 4.8% in 2023, as previously predicted, with the forecast for 2024 only slightly revised down to 4.7%.
