On Wednesday, negotiators reached a phased agreement to end the war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, following 15 months of conflict that has resulted in tens of thousands of Palestinian casualties and heightened tensions across the Middle East. According to an official familiar with the negotiations, the deal, which has not been formally announced, outlines a six-week initial ceasefire phase. This includes the gradual withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza and the release of hostages held by Hamas in exchange for Palestinian prisoners held by Israel.
The first phase will see the release of 33 Israeli hostages, including all women, children, and men over the age of 50. Negotiations for the second phase will begin by the 16th day of the first phase and are expected to cover the release of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and the full withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza. The third phase is anticipated to address the return of all remaining bodies and initiate Gaza’s reconstruction under the supervision of Egypt, Qatar, and the United Nations.
The agreement follows months of on-and-off negotiations mediated by Egypt and Qatar, with the support of the United States, and is finalized just ahead of the Jan 20 inauguration of US President-elect Donald Trump. Hamas, the dominant Palestinian militant group in Gaza, has verbally approved the ceasefire and hostage return proposal, awaiting further information for formal written approval.
If successful, this phased ceasefire could end the violence that has left much of Gaza in ruins, displaced the majority of its 2.3 million residents, and killed tens of thousands. This could potentially ease tensions in the wider Middle East, where the conflict has also sparked unrest in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq, and raised fears of an all-out war between Israel and Iran.
Even if the deal is implemented, further negotiations will be required before a lasting ceasefire and the full release of hostages can be achieved. A significant challenge lies in agreeing on a vision for post-war Gaza, involving security guarantees for Israel and billions of dollars in investment for reconstruction. One unresolved issue is who will govern Gaza after the war. While Israel rejects Hamas’ involvement, it has also opposed the Palestinian Authority’s rule.
Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar is cutting short his European visit to attend security cabinet and government votes on the deal, which are expected by Thursday. The conflict escalated when Hamas-led gunmen breached security barriers and attacked Israeli communities on Oct 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and abducting over 250 hostages. Since then, Israel’s military actions in Gaza have resulted in more than 46,000 deaths, leaving Gaza in ruins with hundreds of thousands of displaced people struggling to survive in shelters.
As the inauguration of Donald Trump approaches, he has reiterated his demand for a swift resolution, warning of severe consequences if the hostages are not released by the time he takes office. In Israel, the return of the hostages could help alleviate public anger towards Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his government, especially regarding the security failure on Oct 7. The conflict’s impact has extended throughout the Middle East, with Iranian-backed proxies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen targeting Israel in solidarity with Palestinians.
The deal comes after Israel took the upper hand by eliminating key Hamas leaders and Hezbollah leaders through targeted killings.
