Lack of accessibility to clean and modern cooking services has been a critical issue for more than half of the world’s population. 73 percent of Bangladeshi households suffer from this and 65 percent of these households use biomass (wood, straw, dry leaf, etc.) as their main cooking fuel. This heavily affects the women, who spend at least 13 hours a week in the kitchen and inhale toxic smoke generated from the biomass fuel. This leads to around 4 million deaths in a year, which is 3 times higher than the global death from traffic accidents. The overall impact of this unsafe fuel usage creates a dent of 2.4 trillion US dollars in the world economy. At a macro level, this value is more than the national GDP of Italy, while at a micro level, this equates to an economic opportunity loss of 3 thousand US dollars in those households, which earns less than 10 US dollars in a day.
Besides improving the health and livelihood of the households, clean cooking services like biogas and e-cook stove contribute significantly as a climate change adaptation strategy with the reduction of 1 billion tonnes of greenhouse gas emission in a year, which is even greater than the emission produced by the global commercial aviation industry (915 million tonnes a year).
Bangladesh, as a nation, is committed to achieving the goal of clean cooking as well as greenhouse emission reduction. The government has developed a Country Action Plan (CAP) which sets its target to disseminate cookstoves to over 30 million households for achieving the goal of 100% clean cooking solutions in Bangladesh by 2030.
The world has numerous problems or issues that need urgent solving, some of which impact over one billion people. These are all worthy of solving, but clean cooking technology is something that can improve a few other high-impact issues also including sanitation, agriculture, and sustainable farming. Several macro trends are emerging these days that can play a significant role in making clean cooking solvable on a global scale:
- Smartphone adoption and internet access have exponentially increased over the last decade, with two-thirds of the smartphone users in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Based on the information provided by the Association of Mobile Telecom Operators of Bangladesh (AMTOB), there are 18.36 crore mobile phone subscribers in Bangladesh as of the end of August 2022. Out of them, there are 11.61 crore mobile internet users.
- Growth in e-commerce has exploded in developing countries over the last few years, thanks largely to the ‘cash-on-delivery’ mechanisms. As found in a study conducted by Dublin-based trade research institution ResearchAndMarkets.com, Bangladeshi B2C (business to customer) e-commerce market size was more than 5.61 billion US dollars in 2021 and will reach up to 10.49 billion US dollars by the end of 2026.
- Grid electrification investment was substantial in the 2010s, and it is set to continue. As per the Bangladesh government declaration on 21st March 2022, 100 percent of its population is now under electricity coverage.
- Demand for voluntary carbon credits (which can be generated by switching to specific modern cooking technology) is at an all-time high now. According to McKinsey & Company, a global management consulting organization, this demand is forecasted to grow by a factor of 15 or more by the year 2030.
- The cost of Internet of Things (IoT) capabilities within the devices has reduced significantly, and it is now commercially viable for even low-cost products. This means IoT-enabled products such as cookstoves can now automatically verify aggregated impact data at scale, facilitating both the sale of data-verified carbon credits on international impact markets and the payment for these credits to users via mobile money.
Due, in part, to these macro reasons, clean cooking is uniquely solvable with the right technology and business models. But what exactly would it take to solve this problem in the next 10 years? From the manufacturing side, it can be estimated that a solution would require the sale of 6.7 million units of cookstoves per month for the next 10 years. This may seem like a gigantic task, but the global electric cookstove industry (including in developing countries like Brazil, China, India, and Indonesia) is already a 19 billion US dollar-per-year market producing millions of units a year. Comparing it with the success of the smartphone market achieving a scale of 128 million units per month through a good quality and affordable price, it can be stated that clean cooking can emulate that too.
It is seen that the lack of uptake of clean cooking products is not a matter of people not wanting to change. Based on many impact enterprises’ direct field experience of working with households over the last few years, people are ready for a better solution as they continue to grow economically and lift themselves out of poverty. Contrary to what we might sometimes hear, people don’t see continual use of biomass as desirable. Yet why are four billion people still using it? The answer is straightforward – the combination of high quality, low price, and scalable distribution is yet to be achieved in the clean cooking solution market. Only the information access problem has been addressed through the growth of the smartphone market.
An impact flywheel view can unlock the disruptive potential of clean cooking technology. Considering the systemic complexity of the market, this approach is particularly relevant in bringing together both the households (end users) and the international capitals (impact investors, donors, carbon markets). Here, each turn can generate an exponential increase in systemic energy to make the next turn bigger, faster, and stronger – all the while remaining focused on the principles of high-quality, low-cost, and scalable distribution.
For each company and sector, the flywheel is unique. This flywheel (figure 3) is specifically applicable to businesses in the clean cooking sector based on the current macro environment. It can inspire market strategies, shifting from a linear understanding of supply chains to a more dynamic, high-growth systems approach.
To be disruptive in solving problems for over one billion people, one must combine system thinking with the macro trends, then apply this to a flywheel model that strategically compounds over time. Though it is not easy, it is still achievable.
The success of the flywheel depends on the fact that each step must be passed through completely, otherwise, the entire flywheel comes to a screeching halt. However, once that first turn is made, further turns then become easier as the flywheel gathers momentum through efficiency and scale. With enough turns, this can then lead to an industry-changing breakout as the companies like Amazon, Tesla, Google, and Meta have achieved within their sectors.
Alimul Rajib is a mechanical engineer specializing in the supply chain management of clean energy and clean cooking solution
