Global trade reached a record $33 trillion in 2024, marking a 3.7% increase from the previous year, driven by growth in the services sector, according to the UN Conference on Trade and Development’s latest Global Trade Update.
Services trade surged by 9% in 2024, adding $700 billion, accounting for nearly 60% of the total expansion in global trade. In comparison, goods trade grew by 2%, contributing an additional $500 billion.
This positive momentum is expected to continue into the first quarter of 2025, building on a global trade value of nearly $33 trillion in 2024. UNCTAD’s analysis shows a shift in global trade dynamics, with developing countries, particularly China and India, outpacing developed nations. While many advanced economies experienced contractions in trade, emerging markets remained strong, supported by robust exports and domestic demand.
China’s trade surplus expanded significantly, driven by strong exports, while the US trade deficit grew, reflecting an increased reliance on imports. South-South trade between developing economies continued to be a key driver of global trade growth.
Services trade performed particularly well, outpacing goods trade by rising 9%, contributing $700 billion to global trade expansion. This resilience contrasts with the goods sector, which saw only a 2% increase. In the fourth quarter, services trade maintained strong momentum, while goods trade growth slowed.
Despite the overall growth, UNCTAD highlighted ongoing trade barriers, especially high tariffs, which hinder market access for developing countries, particularly in agriculture and manufacturing. Tariff escalation remains a significant obstacle to industrialization in developing economies, with agricultural exports facing high import duties averaging nearly 20%.
Looking ahead to 2025, UNCTAD warned of several risks that could disrupt global trade, including mounting geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, protectionist policies, and economic slowdowns. Increased protectionism and new tariffs could reshape global supply chains, while ongoing trade tensions, particularly between the US and China, continue to affect global trade flows. Government subsidies and industrial policies focused on green energy and critical minerals may also impact international trade relations.
Despite these challenges, potential factors supporting trade expansion include China’s planned economic stimulus and a possible easing of global inflation. The report also noted significant variation in trade growth across sectors, with office equipment and pharmaceuticals showing above-average growth, while the energy sector experienced a sharp decline.
Global trade imbalances are growing, with the US maintaining the world’s largest trade deficit and China recording the highest surplus. The EU returned to surplus in 2024, aided by shifts in energy trade. Bilateral imbalances, particularly between the US and China, remain significant, contributing to global economic uncertainty.
As global trade enters 2025, policymakers face the challenge of sustaining growth while addressing rising protectionism. UNCTAD emphasized the importance of multilateral cooperation and strategic trade policies to maintain momentum and manage emerging risks.
