Metropolis Report –
The international market of soybean oil and palm oil is becoming volatile again sending shivering message to consumers in Bangladesh, sources said.
The price of crude soybean oil shot up to 1,316.39 US dollars per tonne on November 16, 2022 that was 1069.24 US dollars per tonne on September 23, 2022 and 1,148.39 US dollar on October 16, 2022 showing 23.11 per cent and 14.63 per cent rise respectively.
The price of crude palm oil shot up to 9,45 US dollars per tonne on November 16, 2022 that was 900 US dollars per tonne on September 23, 2022 and 8,15 US dollar on October 16, 2022 showing 5.00 per cent and 15.95 per cent rise.
Though prices of some consumer goods dropped in the international markets, poor monitoring by the stakeholders’ concerned, gradual loss of local currency against the US dollars, dollar crisis and slowdown in opening of letter of credit stand in the way of giving benefit to Bangladeshi consumers, sources said.
Meanwhile, the price of per tonne soybean oil and palm oil jumped to record 1969.62 US dollars and US dollars 1690 respectively on May 24, 2022.
Meanwhile, Bangladesh taka lost 25-30 per cent against the US dollar in the last 5/6 months that keep prices of consumers high in the local market. Price of 5 litre soybean oil is selling at taka 940-950 in the kitchen market. Freight cost hike also pushes the price of consumer goods in the market. However, according to an official of the Consumer Association of Bangladesh, strong monitoring by the government stakeholders can help reduce price of consumer goods in the market.
The price of rice is hovering between US dollars 450-455 per tonne in the international market. Price of sugar remained stable in the international market. The price of refined sugar stood at 520.2 US dollars and that of crude sugar at 395.73 international market on September 23, 2022. Brazil is the main source of crude sugar in the case of Bangladesh.
The price of wheat price dropped in recent days showing some relief to the consumers in Bangladesh. Price of per tonne wheat stood at 376.99 US dollar per tonne on November 16, 2022 as against 395.73 US dollars on October 16, 2022 in the international market showing 4.02 per cent drop
Per tonne wheat price jumped to 549.85 US dollars June 17, 2022 in the international market that dropped to395.73 US dollars on September 23, 2022.
Meanwhile, the government adjusted upward prices of soybean oil and sugar in the country in line with the prices in global market on November 17, 2022.
With the latest adjustment, the consumers will have to pay Taka 190 for a one-litre bottled soyabean oil and Taka 108 for a kilogram of packaged sugar.
Under the fresh adjustment, the price of sugar has been increased by Taka 13 per KG while at the same time soybean oil price has been hiked by Taka 12 per litre.
Meanwhile, the maximum retail prices have been set at Taka 172 for per litre loose soybean oil and Taka 102 for per KG loose sugar respectively.
Bangladesh Sugar Refiners Association and Bangladesh Vegetable Oil Refiners and Vanaspati Manufacturers Association issued separate notifications confirming the new prices On November 17, 2022.
Meanwhile, the price of palm oil has been fixed at Taka 121 per litre while a five-litre jar of soybean oil will cost Taka 925 from November 17,2022.
But during a seminar at the Jatiya Press Club on September 18, Commerce Minister Tipu Munshi said the ministry cannot fix the price of some basic commodities like rice as per a rule of 2018, stating that the agriculture ministry is assigned to fix the prices of those products.
Likewise, the mill gate rate of packaged sugar will be Tk 82 per kg and at the distributor’s end, prices of the sweetener have set at Tk 84 per kg, the statement said.
Meanwhile, the US dollar is hovering around taka 110-115 as against taka 85 three months back in the kerb market. The weak local currency against US dollar makes imported goods costly.
Meanwhile, according to the international reports, Brazil’s forecasted record soybean production could push global soybean supplies to their second-highest level ever in 2022/23, good news for countries facing tight inventories of other agricultural commodities and historically high food prices.
Brazil, the world’s largest soybean exporter, has mostly completed its soybean crop planting. Favorable early weather and expanded acreage point to a 22% increase in production versus last year, according to Brazil’s CONAB.
Such a production jump would have ramifications for oilseed prices worldwide and could influence what US farmers plant for the 2023 season. Brazil and the US compete to satisfy China’s substantial soybean import demand, which has soared tenfold since 2000 to record levels, as shown in this Gro display.
Global soybean supplies outside of China have tightened in recent years. World soybean ending stocks, excluding China, dropped in 2021/22 to a six-year low, following repeat seasons of lackluster US production and last year’s reduced output in Brazil.
Meanwhile, the stocks-to-use ratio, a measure of supply availability, for world soybeans excluding China fell last year to its second-lowest level in six years. This Gro display shows historical and projected soybean ending stocks and stocks-to-use ratios.
Beneficial rainfall has boosted the Brazilian crop, with accumulated precipitation since the start of September up 11% from the 10-year average, as shown in this display from Gro’s Climate Risk Navigator for Agriculture, weighted for Brazil’s soybean growing areas. While southern Brazil states have been relatively dry, forecasts call for light amounts of rain there in the coming week.
Gro users can monitor the Brazil crop’s progress using Gro’s Brazil Soybean Monitor, which includes our yield forecast model, vegetative health index, and supply and demand balance sheet. The machine-learning Gro Brazil Soybean Yield Forecast Model, which updates daily down to the district level, will begin making live forecasts around mid-December when the crop becomes established.
The Brazilian crop’s prospects will depend on growing conditions through harvest time early next year. With the La Niña global weather pattern given a 76% chance of sticking around through at least February, growing conditions could still deteriorate for Brazil’s soybean crop and the subsequent second corn crop, as Gro wrote about here.
La Niña tends to bring increased rain in northern Brazil and dry conditions in the south of the country, where soybean production plunged last year due to La Niña-induced drought, as shown in this display of the Gro Drought Index.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s neighbor Argentina is suffering persistent drought due to La Niña that has cut forecasts for many of the country’s crops, including corn and wheat. Argentina’s soybean crop prospects, which Gro users can track using our Argentina Soybeans Monitor, also are diminished as accumulated precipitation since September is 42% below the 10-year average in the country’s soybean growing areas, as shown in this Gro Navigator display.
Another report adds: Indian farmers have so far planted wheat and rapeseed on nearly 15% more area than a year ago, the latest data from the farm ministry showed, as planting of winter-sown crops accelerated.
Higher wheat production in India, the world’s second biggest producer of the staple, could help New Delhi to lower prices and replenish inventories that have fallen to a multi-year low.
A rise in rapeseed output could help the world’s biggest edible oil importer to reduce overseas buying of palm oil, soyoil and sunflower oil.
Wheat was planted on 10.1 million hectares as of Nov. 18, up from last year’s 8.8 million hectares, provisional data released by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers’ Welfare showed.
India grows only one wheat crop in a year, with planting in October and November, and harvests from the end of February.
India was forced to ban exports of the staple in May this year, after a sudden rise in temperatures in March cut crop yields.
Despite the ban, wheat prices have hit a record high, prompting the government to weigh measures such as the release of state reserves into the open market while axing the 40% tax on imports to cool prices.
The area under rapeseed, the main winter-sown oilseed, was 6.3 million hectares, up from last year’s 5.5 million hectares.
Farmers expanded the planting area as returns from wheat and rapeseed have jumped in recent seasons, and prices of competing crops such as chickpea stagnated, Ashwini Bansod, head, commodities research at Phillip Capital India Pvt Ltd, said.
“Area under wheat and mustard is expected to rise in 2022/23 season,” she said.
The total area of winter-sown crops stood at 26.9 million hectares as of Friday, higher than last year’s 25.1 million hectares.
Late rains in October raised soil moisture levels and helped farmers to increase the area under wheat, rapeseed and other crops, growers said.
