Trump’s election centerpiece was the imposition of tariffs on US imports. He argued that his proposed high tariffs would protect US jobs and put “America first” in US international economic agreements.
The Southeast Asian countries may be faced with Trump’s demands of paying for the security that the US would provide for their security against China. Few have more to lose than Taiwan in Asia. Taiwan is diplomatically isolated and relies on the US to deter China, which wants to annex the island as part of a One China policy.
Southeast Asian countries that say they do not take sides in the competition between superpowers now have to work harder to show their neutrality. This is especially important because three countries in the region have recently joined BRICS, an economic group led by China’s and Russia’s rivals, including the US. Trump made such claims in his previous term regarding providing security for Taiwan.
Trump’s return will slow down Southeast Asian trade and raise regional tensions as Washington-Beijing ties are expected to be strained.
The Philippines may face significant losses if the US reduces or questions its ties with the country. This is especially true as tensions between Manila and Beijing increase in the South China Sea.
The most significant impact of a second Trump administration on Southeast Asia will be trade-related because the election winner has made no secret of his economic nationalism.
Indonesia works to maintain a balance in its relationships with the US and China. This helps the country attract foreign investment and ensures support for regional security. However, Indonesia’s challenges will undoubtedly increase now.
As it continues to build up an arsenal of advanced ballistic missiles and nuclear weapons, North Korea poses a threat to stability in Asia. To counter the threat, South Korea’s leaders want US firepower, including its nuclear capability, to enhance its defenses.
Japan wants assistance deterring China since it is constitutionally banned from having an offensive military posture. Trump has criticized Japan for not paying enough for the security the US offers it in Asia.
For South Asian countries, Trump’s return brings both hope and worry. His unconventional approach to diplomacy often involves bold actions and challenging positions, creating uncertainty in the region. South Asian countries will closely watch how Trump’s second term will influence their future political and diplomatic landscapes.
Bangladesh may see some significant shifts in its internal and external dynamics. Trump has already criticized Bangladesh for excessive persecution of Hindu minorities since the Awami League was uprooted from power. The Hasina-led Government enjoyed steadfast support from India and PM Modi, who will undoubtedly enjoy robust support from Trump in regional and geopolitical aspects. As the veracity and legality of the current caretaker government have already echoed as a topic of debate, and India continues to be wary of the caretaker government’s several “not so India-friendly” moves, narratives, and decisions, concerns are rippling below the sociopolitical fabric in Bangladesh that a regionally reinvigorated Modi with US support may create more problems for Bangladesh, and try to reinstate the Hasina government.
Unless immediate geopolitical concerns arise, Trump’s policies toward Sri Lanka and Nepal could follow his limited involvement approach. His administration may respond to shifts in Chinese influence in Sri Lanka. Trump will likely focus on maintaining strategic alignments and not interfere in internal issues. Nepal’s complex balancing act between India and China may draw continued attention to Trump’s attempt to counter China’s influence in South Asia. Trump would want to remain far away from Afghanistan, which is a testimony to his claims of getting out of Afghanistan. In his first term, Trump was fully committed to getting out of Afghanistan and would not like to change that stance as the US has been forced to leave the country in quite embarrassing circumstances. Trump would certainly keep a keen eye on Pakistan, the only Muslim nuclear power so that it does not go rogue. Given the current conditions in Pakistan, the chances of that happening are low. It will be a crucial monitoring priority for the Trump administration so that Pakistan, a strong ally of Pakistan and being wooed by both Saudi and Iran, does not do anything or create new alliances that subvert US priorities in the Middle East and Asia.
India, on the other hand, is likely to revive itself as the mafioso of the region. PM Modi’s US supporters are the country’s richest diaspora. This strong Indian diaspora has supported Trump and, subsequently, supported Modi. Trump and Modi’s bonhomie is well-known. Although Trump’s first term was a mixed bag for India, India will welcome Trump’s second term while Delhi braces for the impact of some methods, such as using social media to open coercion. Trump has clarified that he intends to build on his relationship with India, including building trade ties, opening up more technology for Indian companies, and making more US military hardware available for Indian defense. He will revive negotiations for a Free Trade Agreement, in which intense negotiations took place between 2019 and 2020, but Biden remains uninterested. Rather than pushing India to cut carbon emissions, Trump will likely push India to buy into US oil and LNG.
Whether relationships will stay strong after Trump becomes President is uncertain. Important US friends and allies will move away from clear support for the US and take a more cautious and hedging approach to the US and China. This shift will make it harder for these countries to work together.
The writer can be reached at simonbksp@gmail.com
