This week, President Volodymyr Zelensky will travel to the US to present a “victory plan” to his closest ally in an urgent effort to sway White House policy regarding Ukraine’s conflict with Russia, regardless of the outcome of the US elections in November.
During the visit, during which Zelensky will address the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, the Ukrainian leader stated that he hopes to present the plan to President Joe Biden, as well as his two possible successors, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
According to Zelensky, if the plan receives support from the West, it will have a significant effect on Moscow, including a psychological one that might help pressure Russian President Vladimir Putin to negotiate a diplomatic end to the conflict.
“Our strategic partners will take swift and decisive action as part of the Victory Plan between now and the end of December,” Zelensky told reporters on Friday.
He continued by saying that the plan would act as a “bridge” to a second peace summit, which Russia has invited and Kyiv hopes to host later this year.
Zelensky has stated that as an alternative to peace, there is “no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage.”
Still, the two sides are very much at odds.
Zelensky advocates for the expulsion of Russia from all Ukrainian territory and the inclusion of Ukraine in NATO and the EU, a goal he believes is achievable diplomatically. Putin claims that in order for peace negotiations to start, Kyiv must give up its plans to join NATO and cede large portions of eastern and southern Ukraine to Russia.
Zelensky’s visit is taking place at a dangerous time for Ukraine. Trump’s victory in the presidential election on November 5 might lead to a reevaluation of Washington’s heavily reliant US military and financial assistance for Ukraine policy.
In a TV debate, Trump stated he would attempt to put an end to the conflict prior to taking office if he were to win, but he would not say whether he wanted Ukraine to defeat Russia. Harris charged that Trump wanted Kyiv to submit quickly and without conditions.
As the election draws closer, Kyiv has demonstrated its might by taking the lead in a high-risk incursion into Russia’s Kursk region on August 6, quickly capturing land, announcing the launch of significant drone strikes, and showcasing new weaponry, including a ballistic and “drone missile.”
Last Wednesday, a single attack resulted in a huge explosion at an ammunition dump in the Tver area of Russia.
The West claims that Russia has increased its use of drones and missiles, received Iranian ballistic missiles, increased the size of its army, changed its nuclear policy, and intensified its offensive in the east.
Biden is keen to talk about Zelensky’s “comprehensive strategy for success in this war” against Russia, according to US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan.
Zelensky said that his plan only consists of a few points and that “all these points depend on Biden’s decision, not Putin’s.”
According to the leader, the actions included strengthening Ukraine’s armaments, assisting the economy, and securing Ukraine’s place in the global “security architecture.” The leader also mentioned the Kursk operation in terms of military decisions.
According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, a Ukrainian military analyst, Zelensky may seek some form of declaration of post-Biden continuity in support, as well as longer-term assurances of aid through 2025.
“This is going to be a crucial time. It will be a turning point, perhaps, in terms of politics and military politics, he said.
Zelensky is almost certain to reiterate his demand that Biden approve long-range strikes into Russia. Moscow claims that such a move would force NATO members to take a direct part in the conflict and provoke a reaction.
Ukraine desires to attack military targets up to 300 kilometres (186 miles) within Russia, including airfields housing attack helicopters and aircraft that drop glide bombs. According to Washington, the relaxation of those restrictions won’t significantly alter the situation on the battlefield.
Russia, which controls 18% of Ukraine, began its offensive in October of last year and achieved its fastest monthly advancements to date in August.
Russia may use the Ukrainian presence in the Kursk region as a bargaining chip or as a buffer against any external pressure to end the ongoing conflict. Despite severe manpower shortages, Kyiv would have to defend the area against a much more powerful opponent.
In the meantime, Russia has moved closer to Pokrovsk, the transportation center. Its seizure might disrupt Ukrainian logistics and create new avenues for assault.
By year’s end, Kovalenko said, Russia probably hoped to seize Pokrovsk.
“That would allow them… to increase pressure on the information front to catalyze thoughts of peace negotiations, naturally on their terms,” he stated.
Ukraine, which plans to present a peace blueprint at a second international summit later this year, has requested that other participants invite Russia. China and a large portion of the Global South deliberately avoided the first one, held in Switzerland in June, and deliberately avoided Moscow.
This month, Zelensky denounced as “destructive” a Chinese-Brazilian proposal that suggested “de-escalating the situation” and resuming direct talks without requiring Russia to retreat, claiming that his summit initiative is the only workable peace format.
With a significant portion of its energy-producing capacity damaged by Russian strikes, Ukraine is facing its hardest winter yet in the two and a half-year conflict.
In addition to these growing economic difficulties, the government plans to raise taxes for the first time since the war in order to close a $12.2 billion funding shortfall for the army this year.
As of May 2024, roughly 32% of Ukrainians were amenable to some territorial concessions to end the conflict, up from 10% in May 2022, according to Anton Hrushetskyi, executive director of KIIS, a pollster based in Kyiv. However, he noted that the majority of them had in mind a plan that would delay rather than completely abandon the liberation of territory.
According to him, securing solid security guarantees, like NATO membership, is a prerequisite for any peace agreement.
“Despite negative trends, Ukrainians are still optimistic enough and believe in a better future—and hope this future will be in the European Union with finally adequate security guarantees.”